November 29, 2022

Pep Guardiola says Erling Haaland’s winner vs. Borussia Dortmund was as a mix between Johan Cruyff and Zlatan Ibrahimovic. (1:12)
Soccer continues this week with Premier League games and more.
So which team should you be betting and what are the big storylines? Our analysts are here to offer all the input you need.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Paul Carr: No chance I’m betting Chelsea to win the title, even at that price. A four-point deficit to Man City (and five points to Arsenal) may not seem huge, but making up that much ground on multiple teams isn’t easy, and that’s ignoring the actual on-the-field problems Chelsea has. The Blues looked better against RB Salzburg midweek and were probably unfortunate not to get three points, but I wouldn’t look to bet on them until they get a few more games under Potter. Maybe on Oct. 8 versus Wolverhampton.
Dan Thomas: No no no!!!!!! Betting on Chelsea to win the league is a worse idea than an All-Star game.
Dalen Cuff: A bet on this is making a donation to your book, so skip that. I have a better idea, just Venmo me; I could use some extra cash.
Carr: If I had to play a side, I’d certainly take Tottenham here. I’d rather go with both teams to score (-135), since 26 of Leicester’s last 29 away games have had both teams score. Tottenham’s defense has been good, allowing the third-fewest expected goals in the league despite conceding the eighth-most shots. Leicester’s attack has struggled but has still scored in all but one game this season. I’ll keep riding the BTTS streak in Leicester away games.
Thomas: Leicester are the perfect antidote to Spurs disappointment in Europe. They are bottom of the table for a reason and have been shocking so far this season. Spurs haven’t been great but are superior to the Foxes
Cuff: Leicester’s rise to an EPL winner and top-six club was shocking, but this fall may be equally so. They’re a mess right now. Spurs has limited chances in their league games. I’m not playing this game, but if I did I’d probably go under 2.5 goals at +140. I just don’t see the Foxes getting that many chances, and Spurs attack has been lacking as well.
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Thomas: Haaland is on absolute fire at the moment and there is no indication that he is going to slow down. The only concern is that the bookies are obviously all over it and he offers very little value.
Carr: He has scored in seven of nine games for City this season, and while he seems to be running hot with 13 total goals compared to 9.9 expected goals, he has also posted 0.9 or more expected goals in six of those games. I’m not running out to make the bet at -190, and I don’t mind it either against a Wolves defense that probably isn’t as strong as its four goals against suggest.
Cuff: Haaland has been other worldly. I was one of the idiots who thought it would take some time for City to adjust to him and for Haaland to adjust the the Premier League. Wrong, Wrong (in Charlie Murphy voice). That said, there is no value at -190 and I wouldn’t play it.
Thomas: It’s the Madrid derby this weekend. It’s the first big test for Real Madrid‘s perfect start to the campaign, and I think we could see them drop their first points of the season. I like a draw in this, but Atletico have to play so much better than they did midweek in Germany, where they were awful.
Carr: Newcastle win to nil vs. Bournemouth (+130). Despite playing both Man City and Liverpool already, Newcastle is sixth in the league in expected goals against, and the Magpies are conceding the worst shots in the league on average. Bournemouth has allowed a league-high 18 goals while scoring only five, and the underlying numbers look even worse. Bournemouth has a league-low 2.5 expected goals, less than half of 19th-best Aston Villa (5.2), and the Cherries are taking the worst shots in the league. Bournemouth hasn’t scored in four games against top-15 teams this season, and that shouldn’t change on Saturday.
Cuff: West Ham at Everton will prove to be a big 6-pointer in the relegation battle come spring. Everton has been brutal, but they did just “win” the Merseyside Derby 0-0 against Liverpool. They’ve been stingy, allowing just six goals on the campaign but only mustering four goals themselves. The Hammers have struggled to generate goals in league play, and coming off a Europa Conference League game on Thursday I think they’ll struggle to score. I like under 2.5 goals (-125) and as a sweetener, and I can’t believe I’m writing this, but I’m going to take Everton to win at home +195.


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